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Should You Take Less Risk When UK Inflation is Still Above Target

Sun, 21 Jun 2026 23:00:00 GMT

With UK inflation still above the Bank of England’s 2% target, it’s understandable that investors are asking whether they should take less risk. The latest Office for National Statistics release shows CPI inflation at 2.8% in the 12 months to May 2026 , unchanged from April, while CPIH, which includes owner occupiers’ housing costs was 3.0% , also unchanged from April. The Bank of England has also maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% , noting that inflation has fallen but is expected to rise again later this year.

The important point is that the inflation picture is mixed. According to the ONS, transport made the largest upward contribution to the monthly change in both CPIH and CPI annual rates, while food and non-alcoholic beverages made the largest, partially offsetting, downward contribution. Services inflation also rose, with CPIH services inflation increasing from 3.4% to 3.6% and CPI services inflation increasing from 3.2% to 3.7% . That makes it a poor reason to make a dramatic change to your long-term investment strategy based on a single inflation release. But what does it really mean?

What We Ask Our Clients

Over the long term, maintaining returns above inflation is what protects and grows the real value of your wealth. The more important questions are about your time horizon , your need for cash , and whether your portfolio is built to cope with both inflation and interest-rate uncertainty . Today’s inflation backdrop is not as alarming as the double-digit inflation period of 2022, but it is not fully comfortable either.

CPI is still above target, services inflation suggests some domestic price pressure remains, and the Bank of England is balancing inflation risk against signs of a softer economy. That combination can create market uncertainty but uncertainty alone does not mean investors should automatically de-risk.

What the Current Inflation Picture Means for Investors

You may want to adjust risk if:

You need money soon, particularly within the next 1–3 years: If you have known withdrawals coming up, inflation and interest-rate uncertainty make planning ahead even more important. Speak with us so we can organise the cash you need without disrupting your long-term plan.

Y ou are uncomfortable with volatility and likely to react emotionally: Markets may move quickly as investors reassess inflation data, energy prices and Bank of England policy. Reducing risk simply to avoid short-term discomfort can feel reassuring, but it often lowers long-term returns.

Y ou hold concentrated equities, long-duration bonds, or assets that are especially sensitive to rate changes.
Diversification matters when inflation is uneven. At NTM, we don’t aim to eliminate risk, we spread it so no single event, sector or economic outcome can dominate your returns.

At NTM, We Help Clients Navigate These Decisions with Clarity

Rather than asking, “What did inflation do this month?”, we focus on three questions that are more useful for long-term decisions:

1. What’s your time horizon?
Short horizon → less risk and more certainty.
Long horizon → inflation alone isn’t a reason to abandon growth assets.

2. Can you emotionally handle a 20–30% drop?
If not, talk to us. We can help adjust your risk level in a way that keeps you invested rather than encouraging a panic response during difficult markets.

3. Is your portfolio diversified across inflation and interest-rate outcomes?
If you’re with NTM, it will be. If not, improving what you hold is usually better than simply reducing risk across the board.

The Best Approach is Often to Keep Risk the Same

For many investors, the current inflation environment is not a signal to change course. It is a reminder to check that your plan is still doing what it was designed to do:

You’re investing for the long term, typically 5–10+ years: Over long periods, diversified growth assets have historically been one of the most effective ways to protect purchasing power.

Your NTM portfolio is already highly diversified: Our portfolios are designed to cope with a range of outcomes, including inflation remaining above target for longer, interest rates staying higher, or inflation easing faster than expected.

Your needs and objectives haven’t changed: If your goals are the same, what’s the purpose of changing your strategy? Reacting to every inflation release risks turning a long-term plan into a short-term forecast.

Many investors reduce risk too late, after inflation fears have already affected markets, or after headlines have made discomfort feel urgent.

A smarter approach is often rebalancing, not retreating.

Our investment management process:

Trims what has become expensive
Adds to what has become cheap
Keeps your long‑term allocation intact

This avoids emotional decision-making and keeps your strategy aligned with your goals, even when inflation data, energy-price developments and interest-rate expectations are changing.

What We See at NTM

Inflation Should Be a Benchmark to Beat - Not a Reason to Panic

Your long-term financial security depends on achieving real returns, growth above inflation. With UK CPI still above target, cash may feel safer in the short term, but it can still lose purchasing power if returns fail to keep pace with rising prices.

At NTM, we help clients manage risk thoughtfully, stay disciplined, and remain focused on what truly matters: meeting your goals, protecting your purchasing power, and avoiding decisions driven by short-term noise.

Risk Warning : This article is for general information only and does not constitute personal financial advice. The value of investments can fall as well as rise, and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future returns. Inflation, interest rates and market conditions can change, and any investment decisions should be based on your individual circumstances and objectives.

Neils Charity Trek: Climbing for a Cause

Fri, 12 Jun 2026 10:39:13 GMT

At NTM we take the work we do in the community seriously. Whether it’s supporting a local sports team, or in this case Neils trek to the summit of the beautiful Mount Toubkal in support of Cardiff YMCA.

This challenge has been more than a personal test of endurance for Neil, it’s been about helping young people closer to home by raising vital funds for a service that offers safety, support and opportunity.

The Challenge

The 21 ^st of May was the big day, Neil set off early with the goal clear in his mind, as you can see from the pictures the terrain was difficult and altitude at the top a problem for many. Neil pushed on to an impressive height of 3,600 metres on North Africa’s highest peak, which was only a few hundred metres from the top.

Neil was disappointed not to summit but reflective that what he managed was a significant achievement in itself and speaks volumes about his determination, preparation and resilience. Most importantly, the effort was all in support of a charitable cause, making the journey every bit as meaningful as the destination.

Why It Matters

The fundraising supports Cardiff YMCA’s Open Access Youth Club, a welcoming space where young people can build confidence, form positive relationships and access trusted support. Funds help cover the practical costs of running regular sessions, including staff, equipment, refreshments and activities that promote wellbeing, life skills and emotional resilience.

Support for the trek has already raised a significant amount of money for the charity and with donations helping us contribute to a wider fundraising target of £10,000 for the group effort. Every contribution helps keep an essential local service available to the young people who rely on it.

Neil’s charity trek is a reminder that leadership is not only about professional success, but also about stepping forward for the community. By taking on a demanding mountain challenge, he helped shine a light on a cause that changes lives here in Cardiff. Whether through donating, sharing the story or simply offering encouragement, every bit of support helps this effort go further.

If you'd still like to donate to this great cause, click the button below.

Blending Modern Methods with Traditional Values: The Future of Financial Services

Tue, 19 May 2026 09:28:36 GMT

In a world where technology evolves faster than ever, the financial landscape is changing at remarkable speed. Digital platforms, automation, and data-driven insights are reshaping how people interact with their finances.

Yet amid all this progress, one truth remains the same: when it comes to important decisions about money, people still want trust, clarity, and the reassurance of a real human relationship.

That’s why our approach is built on a simple but powerful philosophy, bringing together the best of modern innovation with the traditional values that make financial advice feel personal, thoughtful, and genuinely supportive .

"Trust is the highest form of human motivation. It brings out the very best in people"

Stephen R. Covey

A Future‑Ready Approach You Can Trust

Technology isn’t just a convenience anymore; it’s an expectation. Clients want faster processes, clearer information, and tools that make managing their financial lives easier. Used well, modern methods bring greater precision to complex tasks, provide real-time insight through better data, strengthen security and compliance, and make communication more flexible and accessible. These advancements free up time and create space for deeper, more meaningful conversations about what truly matters: your goals , your future , and your peace of mind .

Why Traditional Values Still Lead the Way

While technology can enhance the experience, it can never replace the principles that make people feel understood and supported. Integrity in every recommendation, prudence in every decision, transparency in every conversation, and long-term relationships built on listening and trust remain at the heart of everything we do at NTM.

At its core, financial services has always been about people, their plans, their families, their concerns, and the future they want to build. That hasn’t changed, and in our opinion, it never should.

Why Modern Methods Matter

As financial services continue to evolve, our commitment remains the same: to deliver forward‑thinking solutions grounded in the values that have stood the test of time .

Innovation may shape the tools we use, but traditional values shape the experience you receive. And when those two things come together, they create a financial partnership that feels not only future-ready, but personal, trusted, and built around you.

If you’re looking for financial guidance that combines modern expertise with a genuinely personal approach, I’d be delighted to have a conversation. Get in touch to find out how we can help you plan with clarity, confidence, and care.

Where Innovation Meets Integrity

The real magic happens when modern tools and traditional values work together. Technology improves efficiency and accuracy, while human judgement ensures empathy, ethics, and personalised guidance.

This balanced approach gives you the speed of digital solutions, the reassurance of human expertise, and the confidence that your financial wellbeing is being handled with care. It’s not about choosing between old and new. It’s about using both, intelligently, thoughtfully, and always with your best interests at heart.

Inheritance Tax Planning Insights from the NTM Team

Wed, 06 May 2026 13:36:29 GMT

At NTM Financial Services, we believe good financial planning is about more than numbers and paperwork. It’s about people, families, and making sure the plans you put in place today continue to support the people you care about in the future. That’s why ongoing learning and professional development are such an important part of what we do.

Recently, members of the NTM team attended the Threesixty Services conference focused on trusts and inheritance tax planning, a valuable opportunity to step away from the day-to-day, strengthen our knowledge, and stay fully up to date with current legislation, industry developments, and best practice.

The NTM Commitment

Inheritance Tax (IHT) is now affecting more families than ever before. With rising property values and frozen tax thresholds, many people are finding that their estate could become liable for tax without realising it. As a result, understanding the options available around estate planning, gifting, and trusts has become increasingly important.

HMRC Guidelines

Recent figures from HM Revenue & Customs have stated that inheritance tax receipts have continued to rise year-on-year as more estates fall within taxable thresholds. According to their own guidelines, 'inheritance tax may apply when an estate exceeds certain thresholds, with rules around gifting, property, trusts, and allowances all potentially affecting how much tax may ultimately be due' . You can read the latest HMRC guidance here: Inheritance Tax thresholds, rules and allowances

Inheritance Tax

At NTM, we’re committed to continually learning, improving, and investing in our expertise so we can continue supporting our clients with confidence and care.

If you’d like to discuss protecting your wealth, planning for future generations, or understanding more about inheritance tax, you can learn more here in the

services section of the website: Estate & Legacy Planning

Practical Support

Events like this help ensure we continue bringing current, practical insight back to our clients. It allows us to stay informed on the latest changes and considerations surrounding inheritance tax planning, while continuing to deliver advice that is personal, clear, and tailored to individual circumstances. Trust planning can form an important part of wider inheritance tax planning, helping some families manage how assets are passed onto future generations. However, trusts and tax planning can be complex, and what may be suitable for one person may not be right for another. That’s why professional advice and ongoing reviews are so important.

Energy Shock Tests Market Confidence: What Investors Should Do Now

Thu, 12 Mar 2026 10:46:30 GMT

Markets endured a turbulent week as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sent energy prices sharply higher. Oil became the centre of global market anxiety, swinging wildly before ending the week significantly up. With the Strait of Hormuz—a critical global shipping artery—under threat, investors were forced to reassess inflation expectations, interest‑rate paths, and the durability of the current economic backdrop.

Government bond yields rose across Europe and the US, equity markets wobbled, and sentiment turned decidedly cautious. European indices, more sensitive to energy costs, lagged behind their US counterparts, while only a narrow slice of tech stocks managed to hold their ground. The week was a reminder of how quickly geopolitical shocks can ripple through every major asset class.

Oil Takes Centre Stage Again

Geopolitics dominated market behaviour. Headlines about shipping disruptions, strikes on energy infrastructure, and speculation over potential production cuts kept oil prices volatile and investors on edge. Although European natural gas prices eased slightly from their early‑week highs, crude oil remained the main driver of market sentiment.

The lack of any meaningful de‑escalation kept fears alive that elevated energy prices could persist longer than expected, potentially feeding back into inflation just as policymakers hoped they were turning a corner.

Central Banks Face Renewed Constraints

The surge in energy prices has put central banks in a difficult position. In Europe, expectations for near‑term rate cuts faded quickly as investors reconsidered the risk of sticky inflation. In the US, stronger economic data combined with higher energy costs further dampened hopes for rapid Federal Reserve easing.

Equity markets struggled under the weight of rising yields, with rate‑sensitive sectors feeling the pressure. The week underscored how fragile the balance is between inflation control and economic growth—and how easily that balance can be disrupted.

What Investors Should Do to Avoid Unnecessary Losses

Periods like this—when geopolitics, inflation, and interest‑rate expectations collide—are exactly when disciplined investing matters most. Here are practical steps investors can take:

Neil Muir Takes on the Mount Toubkal Challenge

Fri, 27 Feb 2026 12:00:21 GMT

We’re excited to share some uplifting news from within our community. On May 19th , Neil Muir our CEO will be lacing up his boots and joining Cardiff YMCA for the Mount Toubkal Hiking Challenge - a demanding trek to the summit of North Africa’s highest peak.

This challenge isn’t just about reaching the top of a mountain. It’s about lifting up young people here at home.

Why This Challenge Matters

Our group fundraising target is £10,000 , and every contribution brings us closer to sustaining a service that means so much to so many. The funds raised will directly support Cardiff YMCA’s Open Access youth club , a vital space where young people can find safety, encouragement, and trusted adults who genuinely care.

For many, this youth club is more than a place to go - it’s a lifeline. It’s where friendships are built, confidence grows, and support is always within reach.

Supporting Our Local Community

Reaching our fundraising goal will help Cardiff YMCA keep the doors open to the young people who need support the most. Neil’s involvement is a powerful reminder of how stepping up and taking action can make a real difference. His commitment helps ensure that young people in Cardiff continue to have a place where they feel safe, supported, and valued.

A Leader Stepping Up

As Neil prepares for the climb ahead, we invite you to join us, whether by spreading the word, offering encouragement, or contributing to the fundraising effort. Together, we can help secure the future of a service that truly changes lives.

Let’s rally behind Neil and the entire team as they take on this incredible challenge for an even more incredible cause.

End of Year Tax Planning - Making Informed Decisions

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 12:00:18 GMT

The Background

As the end of the tax year approaches, it’s one of the most important times to take stock of your finances. Many tax allowances and reliefs available to UK individuals and business owners operate on a use it or lose it basis. Once the tax year closes, any unused opportunities are gone for good. End of year tax planning isn’t about last-minute panic. It’s about making informed decisions that could reduce your tax bill, improve your long-term financial position, and ensure your money is working as efficiently as possible. At NTM Financial Services , we help clients step back, look at the bigger picture, and put a clear plan in place before the tax year ends.

Why End of Year Tax Planning Matters

The UK tax system offers a wide range of allowances, reliefs, and planning opportunities. But many people either don’t realise what’s available to them, or don’t review their position until it’s too late.

Effective end of year planning can help you:

Reduce unnecessary Income Tax and Capital Gains Tax
Make better use of pensions and long-term savings
Protect family wealth for the future
Align short-term decisions with long-term financial goals

Even small changes made before the tax year ends can have a meaningful impact over time.

Key Areas to Review Before the Tax Year Ends

1. Income and Allowances

Reviewing your income position can help identify whether personal allowances, tax bands, or dividend allowances are being used efficiently. In some cases, adjusting how income is taken can reduce the overall tax burden.

2. Pensions and Retirement Planning

Pension contributions remain one of the most effective ways to reduce tax while investing for the future. Reviewing contribution levels before the end of the tax year can help ensure allowances are maximised and aligned with long-term retirement objectives.

This is also a good time to assess whether your existing pension arrangements are still appropriate for your stage of life and goals.

3. Savings and Investments

ISAs and other tax-efficient investment wrappers can play a key role in protecting returns from tax. Reviewing contributions and investment strategy before the year end can help ensure your money is structured in the most effective way. For investors, it’s also important to review potential Capital Gains Tax exposure and whether gains or losses should be realised before the tax year closes.

4. Family and Estate Planning

Tax planning isn’t just about today. Decisions made now can affect your family’s financial future. Reviewing inheritance planning, gifting strategies, and protection arrangements can help ensure wealth is passed on in line with your wishes, without unnecessary tax leakage.

Avoiding Common End of Year Mistakes

One of the most common mistakes is focusing on individual tax actions in isolation. Good tax planning should always support your wider financial plan, not undermine it. Another is leaving decisions too late. Some strategies take time to implement properly, and rushed choices can lead to poor outcomes. This is where professional financial planning adds real value.

How NTM Financial Services Can Help

At NTM Financial Services, tax planning is never treated as a standalone exercise. It forms part of a wider, structured financial planning process designed around you.

Our services include:

Financial Planning – Creating a clear roadmap that connects tax efficiency with your long-term goals
Investment Advice – Ensuring your investments are structured tax-efficiently and remain aligned with your objectives
Retirement Planning – Making the most of pension allowances while building long-term financial security
Protection Planning – Safeguarding your income, family, and assets against life’s unexpected events

We take the time to understand your circumstances and explain your options clearly, so you can make confident, informed decisions.

Now Is the Time to Act

End of year tax planning is most effective when it’s proactive, not reactive. Reviewing your position now gives you time to consider your options properly and take advantage of allowances before they expire.

If you’d like to understand how the end of the tax year affects you, or want a clear, personalised plan in place, speak to NTM Financial Services today.

Get in touch to arrange a review and make sure you’re not missing valuable tax planning opportunities before the tax year ends.

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